| Summary: | 碩士 === 真理大學 === 統計與精算學系碩士班 === 101 === In recent years, the trend of fewer children and aging population are gradually disintegrating the traditional family structure, joint of the economic depression and the impact of wealth inequality let the dream of saving for retirement failed as well. Bureau of National Health Insurance in Taiwan (since March,1995), the rate of medical expenditure is far more than premium income, the worries of financial crisis are already emerged from under the table, Coupled with total amount of medical payments of 339.7 billion points (dollars) from 2002 increase 539.8 billion points (dollars) in 2011, averaging 5% annual increase and it is being bankruptcy, it would let the premium afford increase to compatriots , but decrease the dilemma in the items of medical payments. Therefore, commercial insurance has urgent needs in the individual health insurance. On the other hand, due to the fertility and mortality decline, the population structure becomes aging. In 1946, per elderly population is afforded by 21 working population, in 2010, per elderly population is afforded by only 6.8 working population, and in 2060, per elderly population is afforded by only 1.18 working population. Due to tax inflation and the growth of medical costs, making the burden of the working population. However, the average life expectancy and advances in medical technology, but it implies the phenomenon of impairment in elderly and distribution of social resources, especially the elderly medical expenses and care needs, the preparing of Medical Expenditure of National Health Insurance is more important.
Based on the Department of Health, the National Health Insurance ( year 1998 to 2011), health Statistics Annual Report, and Council for Economic Planning population estimate data (year 2006 to 2051 in Republic of China), we used Gompertz model, Lee-Carter model (LC), Age-Period-Cohort model (APC), Block Bootstrap method (BB) to estimate the future of Medical Expenditure of National Health Insurance and the incidence of hospitalization, etc and apply in policy design of individual whole life health insurance, we hope that by understanding the Medical Expenditure of National Health Insurance's growth trends and appropriate personal medical insurance policy plan could reduce the burden on elderly people and provide to the government health policy planning and insurance companies product design reference.
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