Building A Forecasting Model for Hanoi – Bangkok Air Route Passenger Traffic Demand at Corporate Planning & Development Department – Vietnam Airlines

• Main Author: Pham Van Truong
• Other Authors: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hai Thanh
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51047472074325780768

碩士 === 龍華科技大學 === 資訊管理系碩士班 === 101 === Vietnam aviation company , the state company, established in 1996, based on connecting 20 air business companies, in which Vietnam Airlines is the key company. Corporate planning and development Department use the time - series model for forecasting passenger traffic demand, almost all based on empirical and expert methods. Using other mathematical models in comparision with expert methods for forecasting will contribute to accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, research and build a mixed forecasting model based on the comparison of forecasting methods is essential, especially for passenger traffic demand on the air routes between big cities. This study will focus in building a forecasting model for Hanoi – Bangkok air route passenger traffic demand. So the research questions of this study are: (1) Shortcomings and weaknesses of the model in forecasting air passenger traffic demand between Hanoi and Bangkok? (2) Efficiency of the model in forecasting Hanoi – Bangkok air traffic demand? The model helps to assess the accuracy of forecasts and save the unwanted costs. Because of applying mathematical model, so the forecast will be more scientific. The author designs research process, model, and variables of the research, data collection method, data analysing (mixed method of qualitative and quantitative), processing data, statistical tools helping to answer research questions which are presented in detail in the thesis. The whole research contents are implemented according to these steps: defining the topic and research objectives; researching qualitatively and quantitatively; constructing hypotheses and official research variables, research samples; establishing measure scale and design questionnaire; collecting data; analyzing and processing data using statistical tools; and concluding research topics. After collecting data, the author synthesized and analyzed data on Excel and SPSS 13, the author has pointed out the importance of the mix model, the significance of factors that influence on forecast. Consequently, these findings help accelerate the leaders at Vietnam Airlines forecast more scientific. The research also recommends come solutions to enhance the more suitable method of forecast air traffic demand between big cities based on scientific and quantified background. These solutions then support Vietnam Airlines leaders in making decisions regarding directions and strategies in forecast and in improving competitive capacity.