| Summary: | 碩士 === 康寧大學 === 運籌與科技管理研究所 === 101 === The use of Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) decrease the expenditures for merchandising, inventory, and logistics to make the end-to-end supply chain process more efficient.
This study employed the self-employment fund in a detention center in the central section of Taiwan to explore the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA model) and regression model of carpentry, food and total income.
The results suggested that lagged periods are inconsecutive in ARIMA model. For regression model, it is necessary to copy with variables of different intergrated order and autocorrelation of disturbance. Testing the forcasting accuracy, the results showed that the regression model is slightly better than the ARIMA model, but the difference is small. By Theil’s inequality coefficient, the forcasting ability of these two models is equal. Besides, the calculation of the income and the elasticity are both smaller than 1, so the raw materals of carpentry and food are necessary goods and their price is inelastic.
It is suggested that the information, material and supplies, and products between each prisons and detention centers should be synchronously considered and then to cooperate politically. The efficient methods or procedures should be employed in the supply chain management to lower various costs. The suppliers, manufacturing, production forecast, inventory, and retail are suggested to intergrate to offer better services and products.
Hopefully the inmates could be self-supporting and adapt themselves to the society after discharge.
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