Developing a Cross-Strait Peace Index Analysis: Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process

• Main Authors: Lai, Ming Chou, 賴銘洲
• Other Authors: Kao,Yuang Kuang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7n53p7

博士 === 國立政治大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 101 === Cross-Strait relations have traditionally been defined by the dispute over sovereignty, leading to significant difficulties and challenges in the pursuit of peace. However, with changes in the international environment and cross-Strait relations, the pursuit of peace seems to have become the area of greatest consensus between the two sides. At present, there are a multitude of indicators on factors affecting peace across the Taiwan Strait. The present study seeks to develop a set of observable and distinguishable indicators of peace, with the hope that they can play a positive and active role in promoting cross-Strait peace. At the same time, it is hoped that these indicators can act as a warning light against factors that may set back peace efforts. This study applies the Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process (FD-AHP), using questionnaire responses provided by experts and government officials involved in cross-Strait relations, combined with a review of relevant literature on the subject. Combining the final judgments of the experts and officials, we construct six indicators of cross-Strait peace. They are, in order of importance: “Taiwan pursues de jure independence,” “the comprehensive opening of closer exchanges between the peoples on each side of the Strait,” “the ‘Taiwan Relations Act’ is based on the peaceful resolution of Taiwan's future, and acts as a legal basis for the United States’ defense of Taiwan,” “the United States reaffirms its strategy of guaranteeing regional security in the Taiwan Strait, ensuring that mainland China is unable to ignore the position of the United States that the Taiwan issue can only be resolved by peaceful means,” “mainland China is unwilling to renounce the use of force to liberate Taiwan, and continues to exert military pressure on the island,” and “the two sides of the Strait strive to promote mutual political trust on the basis of the ‘1992 consensus.'"