| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院管理科學學程 === 101 === The penastration of Light Emitter Diode (LED) lighting is getting bigger along with the trend of energy saving in worldwide. However, the demand of consumers to adop LED lighting product is limited because of consumers have to cost high to transfer traditional laminations into LED lighting. The price of LED lighting product is still higher than traditional laminations, considering the LED bulb is the most popular light source, it’s important to forecast the price trend of LED bulbs, this work applies the Grey theory to predict the price of LED bulbs.
In this study, grey forecasting models GM(1,1) is applied to predict the price trend of LED bulb in Europe, the United States, Japan, Korea, and China. This work forcasts the two types of LED bulbs, 40W and 60W LED bulbs. The result shows that the price forecast of the LED bulbs is most accuarate in U.S and least accurate in Korea. It implies that the Grey model perfoms better in predicting the price of LED bulbs in U.S and Europe, especially for 60W LED bulbs.
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