| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程學系 === 101 === Narrow terrain but densely populated, Taiwan island owns more than two-thirds mountainous area. Therefore, when facing the road network design, the form of tunnel is bound to be considered. Along with the opening of the Baguashan tunnel and the Hsuehshan Tunnel, 「Long road tunnel」 is gradually taken seriously. With features of closure, unreachable, hard-to-rescue and so on, any event of an accident happened in tunnel will certainly result in serious personal and property losses. Hence the issue of the tunnel safety is getting emphasized recently.
Based on tunnel safety, with related skills and researches of advanced country as reference, this study proposed a risk analysis procedure to assess the safety of long road tunnel. Poission regression of count data model and Negative Binomial regression model were applied to construct the model of number of fatalities and number of accident respectively in domestic and international tunnels. Due to the insufficient samples of fatalities, only the model of the number of accident was built. According to the discussion of the optimization model and related significant factors, the result shows that three variables include the number of vehicle, tunnel length and the speed limit mainly affect the number of accident. Then, the concept of risk analysis was combined with the regression analysis to calculate the value-at-risk through different scenario settings. By analysis and comparison, several traffic control measures can be taken to reduce the risk and improve the safety of tunnal.
|
|---|
