Effects of output volatility on economic growth in emerging market countries considering trade and financial integration

• Main Authors: Yen-hua Chiu, 邱燕華
• Other Authors: Pao-yuan Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/10124305196618748965

碩士 === 南華大學 === 休閒產業經濟學系 === 101 === 　　As emerging markets grow rapidly, the potential economic growth is valued by various countries. Moreover, the huge business opportunities driven by economic development, increase of the income and the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has made many countries expand trade with emerging markets as a priority. This paper, using an article of Kose, Prasad and Terrones (2006) as the framework and emerging market countries as the subject of the study, reviews whether the influence of output volatility on economic growth will vary with consideration of trade integration and financial integration. 　 　　Our measure of trade integration is a continuous one used widely in the literature—the ratio of the sum of imports and exports to GDP. The financial integration measure is the ratio of gross capital flows to GDP. We use the moving standard deviation of economic growth rate as the proxy variable of output volatility. 　 　　Owing to the degrees of development and the financial and trade integration speeds are different for emerging market countries, our studies focus on two topics. The first topic is to investigate the effects of output volatility on economic growth for emerging market countries at different decade. The second topic is to investigate the effects of output volatility on economic growth for emerging market countries at different areas for the same time period. 　 The empirical output are as follow： 1.We use the five year moving standard deviation of economic growth rate as the proxy variable of output volatility. The empirical research shows that output volatility has negative effect on economic growth but the negative effect is decreasing when we consider the trade and financial integration for 22 emerging market countries from 1970 to 2010.