Simulating the Supply and Demand of Housing in Kaohsiung City by System Dynamics

• Main Authors: Yi-kuei Chu, 朱奕魁
• Other Authors: Chien-liang Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/94514467391637865336

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 營建工程研究所 === 101 === Housing is the largest amount of the products in the market of the real estate. Therefore, the variation of the housing supply and demand will cause significant influence to all construction companies and consumers. This research is going to search the related factors by utilizing literature reviews in order to find out housing supply and demand. In addition, the model is established the basis of relevant information in Kaohsiung over the past decade. Since house is used by human, the population which the fundamental of the housing supply and demand is the most important topic in this research. The simulation system of the housing supply and demand in Kaohsiung City is developed by system dynamics method in this research. According to the nine-situation simulations based on estimate model, we assume thequasi-eliminated household of forty to fifty-year-age buildings are 10%, 8.5% and 7% for high, middle and low population respectively. This article conclude that (1)we assume the estimate of the population is low and the elimination rate of the quasi-eliminated households is 7%. If the housing quantity provided by construction companies is the same as which in past ten years. Up to 2030 AD, the growth rate of housing demand households is always negative every year based on our simulation model. Therefore, the construction companies maybe suffered collapse under this situation. (2) The population in city will raise the highest point and then will have downward trend. It will lead to demographic dividend disappeared and housing demand households reduced. In the long term, it is possible that the prices will be modified from the highest price.