| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立屏東商業技術學院 === 財務金融系(所) === 101 === The main purpose of this work is to evaluate the M&As’ case by using the Fuzzy Real Options Method. The most used traditional method is the Discount Cash Flow one (DCF). However, in the uncertain decision-making environment, it is difficult to use crisp numbers to estimate future cash flows precisely. In addition, DCF can not cover the value of management flexibility of deferred expenditures that may happen in an investment in the future. This research integrates Fuzzy Theory in the Artificial Intelligence field with the Real Options method to develop the Fuzzy Real Option Valuation Model. The developed model applies Fuzzy Theory to Real Options Valuation, which gives managers the flexible range of estimating future cash flows and other parameters. The managers can also include the future uncertain activities, such as new incremental investments and divestments, in the valuation. Innolux’s acquiring Chi Mei Optoelectronics and TPO Displays on March 18th 2010 is applied as an empirical case study. In the study, the assessment of the growth of fuzzy cash flows is input into the developed operation model. Under the real deal terms and subjective assessment, the operational result shows that this merger is infeasible in the financial aspect. Comparing the estimated combined market value Dec. 31st 2009 with the real market value May 22nd 2013, the later is less than half of the former.
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