Forecasting the Demand for Taiwan Tourism-Application of the Transfer Function Model
碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 101 === Taiwan’s tourism industry grows with significant contribution to the society as that of the whole world develops. This research combines the piecewise linear model and the time series analysis method to build a transfer function model for forecasting the demand...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2013
|
| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93900481056827939989 |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 101 === Taiwan’s tourism industry grows with significant contribution to the society as that of the whole world develops. This research combines the piecewise linear model and the time series analysis method to build a transfer function model for forecasting the demand for Taiwan tourism based on the monthly tourist arrivals.
In addition, we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) to assess the precision of the forecasting models.Finally, in order to compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy between different models, Naive method is added as a benchmark model and evaluates forecasting performance between two models by using the Diebold-Mariano test.
The result turns out to be that piecewise linear model and transfer function model predict Taiwan tourism demand precisely and they are significantly outperform Naive method for the out-of-sample forecasting period. Hope this research can make a contribution to the relevant research fields.
|
|---|