The Impact on Oil Tax of Taiwan:A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Approach

• Main Authors: Hsiao-Yi Huang, 黃孝怡
• Other Authors: 林建甫
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92770652257354205751

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 101 === This paper is an attempt to develop and estimate a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Taiwan. In this paper, the model is following Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans(2005), Ireland (1997) and Peersman and Stevens (2012).The structural parameters of this model are estimated by using a Bayesian approach and the model is constructing by being assumed to adjust wages infrequently. Oil is used as an input to production and is also a part of the household’s consumption in this paper.There is a flexible elasticity of substitution between oil and other types of consumption goods in the consumption bundle. We also simulate the DSGE model including oil tax and compare the results under various oil tax rules. The main results of this paper are the production factor shock, consumer preference shock, wage adjustment cost shock will immediately rise output and the value-add production consumption. The capital utilization shock will rise output due to the raise of number of labor. The price adjustment cost shock, oil price shock will rise inflation and fall consumption. The interest rate adjustment cost shock will fall output and added-value goods.Then the oil tax will affect the consumer preference and strengthen the negative effects of price adjustment, and the oil tax will reduce the effects of wage adjustment, the consumption and production. The estimated impulses between the oil tax rule which the amount of oil tax is proportion to oil price and the oil tax rule which is that the amount of oil tax is proportion to the amount of oil are not obviously different. The main contribution of this paper is that we simulate how the exogenous shocks would affect macroeconomic by using the estimated DSGE model. And the numerical results show that the variables are not substantially affected by the presence of nominal rigidities. This paper also aims to explore the complications of the effects between these exogenous shocks. The suggestions of this paper are followings. First, the oil tax would reduce oil consumption and impact economic growth. Second, the effects of different types of oil tax are not obviously different.