Effects of Climate Change on the Slopeland Hazard Potentials

• Main Authors: Chih-Hsiang Yang, 楊智翔
• Other Authors: 范正成
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/18072244169389641070

博士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 101 === From the statistical results in the near history, the frequencies of extreme rainfall events induced by climate change have increased. Accordingly, potentials of slopeland hazards such as landslides and debris flows have also increased. To reflect the apparent trend of climate change, in this study, the effect of climate change on the hazard potentials of the slopelands in the watersheds of Kao-Ping stream was investigated; and the results are expected to be useful for related studies and disaster prevention strategies in the future. To achieve the above-mentioned goal, in this study, 7 GCMs models and 3 futrue scenarios were used and combined to establish two models for evaluating the hazard potentials of slopelands and analyzing the potentials of slopeland disasters in the future. The results showed that the impact of the CSMK3 model with the A1B scenario on the slopeland disaster potential in the study area was the most consistent with the distribution of the recently real disasters. For the simulated resultsof CSMK3 model with the A1B scenario (2020~2039), compared with the baseline (1980~1999), in the study area, the area of landslides with the return period less than 5 years increases by 175 km2 (70.8 %), and the number of potential debris flow torrents with the return period less than 5 years increases by 9 (90.0 %). From the potential distribution map of disaster prevention in the study area, it is found that there is a significant increasing trend for high potential of disaster prevention. It is also found that the evaluated potential of slopelands hazard in the periods of 2020 to 2039 is similar to that occurred in the recent years. Therefore, the findings in this study could be used as a reference for plotting the villages with high disaster potential. Apart from these, according to the maps of present shelter locations and high potential of disaster prevention (landslides) simulated in this study, the numbers of shelters located in the areas of high potential of disaster prevention (landslides) in the periods of 2020 to 2039 might increase up to 37. From this finding, it is suggested that while selecting the shelter locations in the future, potential zones of debris flows and landslides be considered so that the risks of shelter safety may be minimized.