高齡化對財政的影響

• Main Authors: PU, HSIN-YUAN, 卜信源
• Other Authors: 鍾俊文
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20772275696133625180

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 國際經營與貿易學系 === 101 === Population aging is one of the major challenges facing the world’s economies. With the development of social economics, women’s self-awareness has participated in the rise of female participation in the labor force, just as the fertility rate continues to fall. As medical technology develops, people are living longer, and all of the above reasons have accelerated the aging phenomenon. There is extensive research evaluating the effect of population aging on macroeconomic variables and government finance. Due to the increase in the retired population and lengthening retirement periods, it is expected that the aging phenomenon will have a negative impact on the social insurance system. In the paper, I investigate the link between population aging and conjunctive trends at a macroeconomic level by fiscal deficit, government debt and individual income tax. I also further investigate the link between population aging and government finance by evaluating how changing demographic structure affects the government's fiscal revenues and expenditures. My empirical work is based on the experience of 30 members of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), and uses cross-country panel data. In light of the regression analysis, we can see that population aging increases the government fiscal deficit, government debt and decreases the individual income taxes. Meanwhile, the effect of population aging on financial markets shows somewhat mixed results. The regression analysis demonstrates that the proportion of the elderly population seems to be correlated with the government fiscal deficit and debt, implying that government finances will seriously influence the financial burden under the uneven situation of revenue and expenditure. Keywords: population aging, fiscal deficit, government debt, income tax, panel data.