A Study on the Correlation between the Export Amount of Taiwan to the U.S. and the Macroeconomic Variables before and after 2008 Financial Crisis

• Main Authors: Hui-Chen Hsu, 許惠媜
• Other Authors: Yu-Hsien Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/jg6zks

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 經營管理系碩士班 === 101 === Due to the lack of natural resources and the small domestic market, Taiwan’s economy depends highly on the international market. Since the 17th century, Taiwan has become a transport station of the international business. The booming of international trade brings in the sharp economic growth of Taiwan. It is therefore important to understand the influential factors and their impacts on Taiwan’s international trade. The financial crisis caused by the U.S. at the end of year 2008 had greatly affected the growth of world economy making Taiwan’s exportation stay at the lowest level over the past 10 years. This research uses the multiple regression model to analyze the correlation between the export amount of Taiwan to the U.S. and the macroeconomic variables before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The result of this research can provide as a useful reference to government officials and researchers. The results of this research indicate that, in the regression model before 2008 financial crisis, the first lag period of Taiwan’s industrial production index, the first lag period of exchange rate, the first lag period of federal funds rate and the first lag period of U.S.’s industrial production index are influential economic variables to the exportation amounts of Taiwan to the U.S. In the regression model after financial crisis, the first lag period of exchange rate, the first lag period of Taiwan’s industrial production index, the first lag period of China’s annual changes in customer price index, and the first lag period of Taiwan’s annual changes of wholesale price index are significant economic variables that affect the exportation amounts of Taiwan to the U.S.