Forecast Model of Total Revenue of Tourist Hotel in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Shih-Min Huang, 黃詩珉
• Other Authors: Yu-Hsien Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/f9z2bg

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 經營管理系碩士班 === 101 === Tourism has become one of the most import industries in Taiwan recently. A significant amount of tourism revenue comes from the revenues of all tourist hotels. This research establishes a forecast model that incorporates the independent variables of “consumer price index”, “number of sightseeing visitors” and “hotel occupancy rate” to find their impact on the dependent variable of “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan. We use the monthly data from January, 2001 to December, 2012 in the regression analysis. This set of data comes from Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and Tourism Bureau of the Republic of China (Taiwan). The most suitable regression model identified from multiple regression has it R-square reading reaching as high as 76.2%. The follow-up diagnostic test on the properties of residuals, namely, the normal distribution, equal variance and mutually independent indicates the adequacy of this model. To further examine the validity of this model, we found that the actual “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan for the test period falls inside of the 95% confidence interval of fitted dependent variable constructed using the independent variables. Our model shows that“consumer price index” , “number of sightseeing visitors” and “hotel occupancy rate” all has a positive effect on the “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan.