| Summary: | 碩士 === 中央警察大學 === 消防科學研究所 === 102 === Because of several potential hazardous factors such as high fire load density, considerable amount of combustibles, overcrowd population density, corridors being occupied by booths and people unfamiliar with the centers, large-scale exhibition centers are very likely to threaten life and property safety once the fires occur during the exhibition periods. Therefore, evacuation safety is the most important issue. Researchers of evacuation in large-scale exhibition centers have often used evacuation software to simulate scenarios and suggested that factors of exit location, width and number of exit, corridor width and population density would likely affect the evacuation time. However, empirical research on examining the relative significance among the factors above mentioned seems scant. While using scenario simulation to verify evacuation time has been extensively studied, incorporating evacuation simulation into statistical analysis method in order to evaluate egress safety is rarely investigated. Therefore, the aim of this article attempts to explore the weight of those factors which affect evacuation time and present an optimal egress model for the large-scale exhibition centers during the exhibition periods.
The research centers on an empirical study involving two software packages including SIMULEX (evacuation simulation) and SPSS (statistical analysis). A two-phase empirical study is designed to explore the relative contributions of these independent variables. These independent variables consist of ten factors which affect evacuation time and are divided into four categories. First, the study takes some major operational large-scale exhibition centers in domestic as subjects; sets relevant factors and parameters to carry out simulation for different scenarios based on literature review, field observations and comparative analysis, and compares the evacuation times obtained by SIMULEX Evacuation Software. Considering the changes of relevant factors and parameters, this research first attempts to enhance the efficiency of evacuation through the verification of SIMULEX and then develops the optimal egress models and finally minimizes the required evacuation time. In addition, the data of the evacuation time from simulations are also analyzed by using SPSS. In order to clarify the relative significance of these factors which affect the evacuation time, a series of statistical analysis such as t-test, two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), multiple regression analysis are performed.
This study shows that factors named number of exit and total width of exit, number of evacuation population have significant influence on evacuation time in two-phase empirical examinations. Total width of exit is more strongly linked to evacuation time than number of exit. The data also indicate no strong relationship between corridor-related factor and evacuation time. In addition, there is a statistically significant main or interaction effects between width of main corridor and numbers of blocked corridors(numbers of main corridors which are occupied by stands). To conclude, this study may be of importance in establishing the optimal space planning for egress in the proposed exhibition center by considering cost-effective space design and egress safety, as well as in providing stakeholders with a better and practical way to evaluate the efficiency of evacuation system in the large-scale exhibition centers.
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