Applying Game Theory to Analyze the Real Estate Investment Under Demand Uncertainty

• Main Authors: Kuo-Hung Chen, 陳國宏
• Other Authors: Lu Hsiao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54964682859484012253

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 高階經理人碩士在職專班 === 102 === Taiwan’s real estate market, with the increase of population, the rise of the city, and the economic recovery of the world economy in recent years, known as a leader in the real estate industry, the real estate boom driven by active trading market, and many real estate factors, you really want to master the best time period for real estate development and profitability, this is not generally the operators can have complete control over the investment, however, a large number of competitors, the market for real estate investment under demand uncertainty, I really can not lose, when it comes into play, when to invest, there are indicators of whether the subject can be emulated. Right of information, resulting in varying quality of decision-making, and thus directly affect profitability. The purpose of this paper is as follows : 1. an application of game theory game tree to analyze the choice of two home builders and the best reward combinations;2. real simple game theory :complete information dynamic game, message game completely static, dynamic game of incomplete information, incomplete information static game, and the solution was a preliminary understanding, SPNE subgame perfect Nash equilibrium, NE Nash equilibrium, PBE perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium, BE Bayesian Nash equilibrium. 3. to make some management recommendations, on the whole, the process of decision-making, which includes the execution and management of high-level of the company’s face, after they get the information and analysis, and make up the decision-making, speed and quality of its process, determines the key to success. The results showed that, under the decision after builders in some cases, but to obtain higher profits; know the demand is not necessarily an advantage, and I do not know contender decisions but is beneficial.