| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班 === 102 === To increase the odds is always what investors are looking for. As an individual investor who looks for continuous or stable cash inflow, the stock paying consistent or stable dividend would be a very good choice. There is usually no insider’s information available for the non-insider investors. All they can rely on is the pool data for listed companies from the information providers. In this research we would like to create an predictive model for the current yield for stable dividend paying companies so that an individual investor can have an idea how the dividend yield of the next period would be and he/she would easily identify stocks with better performance prospective and therefore increase his/her odds from the stock universe. We also proved that, by using improved models, such as a grouping based on the sectors or market capitals the models have more explanatory power within some of the industries such as chemical and biotech industries, as well as the large capital companies. We then redo the test by changing the forecasted years and the results are all with the consistency to beat the random walk model. Results derived by data sets excludes the financial crisis of 2007-2008 are better, as expected. Results derived from five years are better than that from three years.
|
|---|
