| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 資訊工程學系 === 102 === FANANI, LUTFI. Bus Arrival Prediction – to Ensure Users Not to Miss the Bus (Preliminary Study based on Bus Line 243 Taipei).
The bus arrival time is the primary information for most city transport travelers. It is influenced by stochastic variation in number of factors, (e.g. intersection delay, traffic congestion, and weather condition) resulting in buses to deviate from the predetermined schedule and lengthening of passenger waiting times for buses. Providing passengers with an accurate information system of bus arrival times can reduce passenger waiting times. In this thesis, we used the normal distribution method to the random of travel times data in a bus line number 243 in Taipei area. In developing the models, data were collected from Taipei Bus Company. A normal distribution method used for predicting the bus arrival time in bus stop to ensure users not to miss the bus, and compare the result with the existing application. The result of our experiment showed that our proposed method has a better prediction than existing application, with the probability user not to miss the bus in peak time is 93% and in normal time is 85%, greater than from the existing application with the 65% probability in peak time, and 70% in normal time.
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