| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立彰化師範大學 === 企業管理學系 === 102 === This paper discusses the research in the U.S. quantitative easing policy that impact on Taiwan economy trends and momentum during QE1 from November 2008 to March 2010 , the QE2 period from November 2010 to June 2011 and QE3 from September 2012 to December 2013.During the use of these three quantitative easing, a way of Words Cloud displays news message. IMF-World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a global economic news, the CEPD overview of trends in the news is Taiwan economy trends, CEPD Monthly current economic situation is Taiwan economic momentum. Cross-reference ofnews and government measures may grasp soundness of information.
In the empirical part, to find relevant variables from the news published from Words Cloud, and compared with unused Words Cloud. Using AREMOS economic statistics database and TEJ Taiwan Economic Journal looking for supporting information. Obtained dependent variable are The unemployment rate in Taiwan and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Then using Correlation Analysis and Regression analysis to predict and discussion, and finally calculate the predicted value and the actual value. The empirical results summarized in the following conclusions:
1.QE caused the Federal Reserve Balance increased and economy trends and momentum in Taiwan biased positive. Early unfavorable to Taiwan, Because depreciation of the dollar caused appreciation of NT.
2.The tool of Words Cloud for the study is relevant.
3. U.S. economy turns for the better, and it gets to drive Taiwan's exports rose, so optimistic about Taiwan economic. In the QE exit, withdrawal of foreign investment that impact Taiwan relatively small.
Therefore, for the purposes of this study:
First, after adding news of Words Cloud that is Boom Lights, the error of joining Boom Lights is bigger than that is not added. But the overall error is not too large, Words Cloud still have a certain degree of prediction capacity.
The second point of this study is found in a model to predict the unemployment rate in Taiwan, only through two variables: the CPI Taiwan and Taiwan WPI index to predict, and the error of predicted value and actual value is not large.
The third point is found that the three rounds of quantitative easing on stocks forecast variables, there are the British stock market, the Korean stock market and the MSCI World Index, we can get these three variables play an important role in the quantitative easing policy.
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