The Relation between the Taiwan Business Cycle and the Flow of Vehicles at Toll: Evidence from Light Vehicles, Large Wagons and Container Trucks

• Main Authors: Sun-Chun-Min Hung, 洪孫俊民
• Other Authors: Chao-Shin Chiao
• Format: Others
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/wcwxm3

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 102 === This research is to study the leading and lagging relations between the flow volume of light vehicles, large wagons and container trucks at toll stations on the National Freeways No.1, No.3 and No.5, and the Taiwan’s business cycle. The research started from January 1993 to December 2012, totaling 240 months. Evidence shows: (1)Using the indicator announced by the National Development Council, Executive Yuan to proxy for the business cycle, the flow of container trucks lags behind the highs and lows o the business cycle. When the economy reaches peak, the flows of light vehicles and large wagons are both lagging indicators; however, they are both leading indicators when the economy reaches its lows. The evidence of the flow of container trucks with regard to the business cycle. (2)Using the Taiwan Weighted index to proxy for the business cycle, the flows of all of the three types of vehicles lag behind the peaks. The flow of container trucks is a lagging indicator, when the economy reaches its lows. Those of the light vehicles and large wagons are opposite. Keywords: business cycle, taiex, vehicle flow volume of National Highway