| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北商業技術學院 === 會計財稅研究所 === 102 === A significant increase in trading volume and soaring prices in Taiwan’s -housing market-since early 2009 brought up public revolt, and the Ministry of Finance came up with the Excise Tax on Goods and Services in June 1, 2011, attempting to levy taxes on in short-term transaction in the real estate market to cool down speculative behavior. This thesis firstly aims to apply ADF method to examine if pricing and volume in Taiwan’s real estate market are in steady state, then engage in a co-integration analysis of the long-run equilibrium relationship with regards to the price and volume. We find all variables with stationary states at the first difference, and a long-term equilibrium between price and volume.
I then use the vector error correction model to investigate if the Excise tax is effective in dampening the prices and trading volumes in Taiwna’s six metropolitan areas. No significant effects on prices in these metropolitan areas are found, nonetheless, transaction volumes are significantly affected in the northern areas, mainly Taipei and New Taipei City areas. The above findings prove that the Excise tax’s policy goals are properly set to slow down the transaction volume, yet to bring the prices down takes a variety of policy tools, since the causes of price soaring are multi-phased.
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