| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 河海工程學系 === 102 === The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on water supply for the catchment of Touqian river in Hsinchu county. First, the downscaled GCMs (General Circulation Models) during 2046-2065 are adopted, and include these models: CCCma_CGCm3, CNRM_Cm3, CSIRO_Mk3.0, GFDL_Cm2.0 and LASG_FGOALS-g1.0. Second, use the Tank Model calibrated by Genetic Algorithm and the meteorological projection in 2046-2065 to calculate the future discharge for Touqian river. While knowing the distribution of discharge, last, the risk and impact of given demand on Hsinchu county in 2046-2065 would be assessed by simulation method.
In the first cropping season, there is no significant difference between the present and future for the supply of irrigation requirements. In the second cropping season, the discharge of Touqian river would decrease but the irrigation requirements would increase, taking for granted, the drought in the second cropping season would be more serious than the first.
For public use water, increasing demand would cause the drought of public use to be more frequent in 2046-2065. The water supply system nowadays could not afford, that is, it maybe need developing desalination, doing fallow or additional recharge in Hsinchu in the future.
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