| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 統計學系 === 102 === In recent years, credit cards market was promoted incessantly by the banking industry. The usage scopes and transaction capabilities of credit cards were also expanded incessantly which caused the transaction amount of credit cards growing rapidly. Living habits of people was affected by the use of credit cards in Taiwan. Similarly, the impact on Taiwan economic was significant day by day. So, this becomes a concerned issue in Taiwan.
The major purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of macroeconomic variables on the amount of credit card consumption. First, a predict model for the amount of credit card consumption was established by using macroeconomic variables. Next, macroeconomic variables were using to construct a long-run equilibrium model of the amount of credit card consumption to discuss the short-term and long-term interaction between the credit card consumptions and macroeconomic variables. In this study, the amount of credit card consumption and two macroeconomic variables, monetary aggregate (M1B), and unemployment rate, are applied to construct a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to investigate the trend of amount change of credit card consumption. Then co-integration analysis is used to establish the long-run equilibrium relationship between the amount of credit card consumption and macroeconomic.
The VAR model shows that the amount of credit card consumption is significantly affected by the lag-1, lag-2, lag-3, lag-4 difference of the credit card sales, lag-5 difference of the monetary aggregate M1B. In addition, the co-integration analysis shows that amount of credit card consumption and unemployment rate have a negative impact, as well as credit card sales and M1B have a positive impact. The reason is that the government implements easing monetary policy, so amount of credit card consumption and M1B have a positive impact. This result differs with some former researches which are the increasing in amount of credit card consumption will reduce the monetary aggregate.
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