| Summary: | 碩士 === 東海大學 === 高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 103 === The purpose of this research is to investigate the influencing factors of international nickle price. For construction material makers in Taiwan who use corrosion resistant nickle alloys as the raw materil, they will be benefited if they are aware of the trend of the nickle price, since it is the most important part of their manufacturing cost. Daily data is applied from Jan/2010 to Mar/2013 to examine the relationships among the nickle spot price and futures price, gold spot price and futures price, crude oil spot price and futures price, and US dollar index by empirical methods of VAR model and Granger causality test. In evidance, the result of the test shows as below:
1. The nickle spot price and futures price each day will be affected by the gold price, crude oil price and US dollar index of the same day.
2. The daily nickle price, gold price and crdue oile price have unobvious influence on the nickle spot price in the future. But the nickle spot price in the future is significantly affected by daily US dollar index.
3. The nickle spot price is affected by the US dollar index. In addition, it is indirectly affected by the crude oil price, especially by the price of the previous day.
Key words: Nickle, Vector Autoregressive Model, Granger Causality Test
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