The Study of Risk Analysis and Management Strategies for Earthquake Fire in Keelung City

• Main Authors: Yang-Wei Shao, 邵揚威
• Other Authors: 張寬勇
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7a2zfz

博士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 工程科技研究所 === 102 === The San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 in the US induced 492 blocks burned by the fire and caused more than 3000 deaths. At the same time, it made about 225,000 to 300,000 people to be homeless. The fire by the Kanto Earthquake of 1923 in Japan had burned about 3800ha area in Tokyo, and completely destroyed about 316,000 houses into ashes.The cities in Taiwan are with intensive constructions and high population. At the same time, Taiwan is located at the junction between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate which makes the high frequency of earthquakes and high possibility of post-earthquake fire. Therefore, it shall have risk evaluation and control plan toward post-earthquake fire for reducing the damage by the fire. This research is taking Keelung City as the studied area. First of all, it induces the risk of fire in each administrative district separately under normal conditions by analyzing the historical fires. After that, it develops the factors of the risk in fire, and makes sure the level of the risk in all the factors by having interviews with experts and analyzing the questionnaire. At the same time, it uses Simple Earthquake Seismic System to stimulate the post-earthquake fires, and analyzes the probability of having post-earthquake fires in all the administrative districts in Keelung City by estimating the cases of post-earthquake fires. It concludes the risk level in different districts by the probability of having post-earthquake fires and the damage from fire, then having the potential risk map for post-earthquake fires in Keelung City. Based on the map, it compares with the investigation result toward real building. At least, it proposes the control strategies toward the high risk administrative districts in having post-earthquake fires. By checking the historical fires, it has the most cases in Zhongzheng Dist. and Anle Dist. which is 37 cases per each district. By considering the amount of buildings for estimating the risk of fire in normal conditions, Nuannuan Dist. is having the highest risk in having fire due to the old buildings, and the ratio is 1.75 times from the average. By the interviews with experts, analyzing the questionnaire, and the statistical data from Keelung Government, it concludes that Anle Dist. and Xinyi Dist. are in the highest risk of having post-earthquake fires, which is because Anle Dist. has 81.71% of buildings are made by bricks and Xinyi Dist. has higher intensity of housing area. By the stimulation of having post-earthquake fires, this research finds that Anle Dist. and Zhongzheng Dist. are having the highest probability of having post-earthquake fires. After analyzing the potential risk of having post-earthquake fires by considering the risk evaluation model, this research concludes Nuannuan Dist., Zhongzheng Dist., and Xinyi Dist. are the areas with higher risk in having post-earthquake fires. Therefore, it shall have preventive plans for reducing threaten of disaster. This research is also having real survey in Hong Kong, Macao, and Mainland China for establishing the evaluation model in single building to list all potential problems in both old buildings and new buildings. By checking, evaluating and studying the 23 cases in Keelung City, it finds out that the buildings in high risk districts are also in high risk of having post-earthquake fires. By estimating the worst buildings might have most casualties, 67% of buildings are also in the districts with level 5 risk of having post-earthquake fires. The model for analyzing and estimating the potential risk of post-earthquake fires made by this research is able to be used for evaluating the risk of post-earthquake fires by the governments in all the counties and cities before the disaster happens. The governments may have the relevant plans in relieving the victims for reducing the damage of disaster toward the administrative districts in high risk of having post-earthquake fires. On the other hand, this research also provides the strategies in preventing post-earthquake fires. The strategies can be provided to the urban development bureaus, emergency response centers, and fire fighting branches for controlling the factors of having post-earthquake fires in communities and being as a reference for improving the problems. By using the strategies of controlling the factors in having post-earthquake fires based on this research, all the potential risks (except division in using lands and taking refuge for weakness) in shall have relevant strategies for reducing the problems. By taking the real study in Nuannuan Dist., Keelung as the studied case, it might be able to reduce about 30% of damage.