| Summary: | 碩士 === 中華大學 === 運輸科技與物流管理學系碩士班 === 103 === According to related studies logic model is the most used model for prediction passenger volume. However, logic model needs to conduct questionnaire survey, which cost lots of time and money. Using macroscopic prediction models to predict passenger volume is more efficient. Lotka-Volterra model is a precise model of passenger volume prediction. Therefore, Lotka-Volterra model is employed to predict the three transportation methods, which are mini-three links, cross-strait flights and cross-strait ships, from Fujian to Taiwan. By the model, we can analyze the competition and cooperation relationship among the three transportation methods. Time series data of passenger volume are substituted into the model to calibrate the coefficients. Also, the data are used to validate the model. In addition, external effects, which are population, oil price, exchange rate, GDP and CPI. E-views is employed to solve the model. The results show that the prediction of passenger volume of cross-strait flights and cross-strait ships are good. The prediction of passenger volume of mini-three links is reasonable, which is not as good as the other two. The model with population presents the best result. Mini-three links and flights have good reputation among passengers which contributes to increasing its passenger volume. The service of mini-three links has been well developed and the capacity of service is enough. However, the capacity required by cross-strait flights should be extended to meet passengers’ demands. As to coopetition, cross-strait ships affect the other two means of transportation positively, while the relationship between mini-three links and cross-strait flights are like predators and prey, which mini-three links are prey and cross-strait flights are predators.
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