Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Macroeonomic Factors and Feather Prodructs of Taiwan and China Exported to Japan around the 311 Earthquake in Japan

• Main Authors: WU,CHUNG-HSUN, 吳忠訊
• Other Authors: Lai Wen Quai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54072131265410198028

碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 103 === This study aims to investigate the time series of analysis of the relationship between Macroeoconomic factors and fether products of Taiwan and China exported to Japan around the 311 earthquake in Japan. Time-sequence unit-root test, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, co-integration test and error correction model were utilized in this study. And the data were covered from March 2003 to March 2014. The empirical results of this study reveal the following: 1. Through the result of vetor autoregressive model, the factors which afftected the gross export value of Taiwan feather exported to Japan were export price, Japan CPI and labor cost; the factors which afftected the gross export value of China feather exported to Japan were real rate and China MPI. 2. Through Granger causality test: (1) Taiwan: (a)The factors which have two-way causality were the real rate and Japan CPI during the quake, the export price after the quake, the labor cost during and before the quake.(b One-way behind gross export value was the export price during and before the earthquake.(2)China: (a) One-way behind the gross export value were the real rate during and before the quake, the export price after the quake, Japan CPI during the quake, China MPI before the quake and Japan WPI during and before the quake. 3. The factors which have co-integration with gross export value were: (1) Taiwan: (a) The real rate during and before the quake; (b) The export price; (c) Japan CPI ; (d) labor cost. (2) China: (a)The real rate during and before the quake ; (b) the export price before and after the quake; (c) Japan CPI during the quake; (d) China MPI after the quake; (e) Japan WPI during the quake. According to the results, this study gave some advice to the researchers afterwards.