| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 103 === This research main explores the relationship between price and holding costs of real estate, we took data of real estate price index, economic growth rate, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates and land value increment tax revenues collected in Taiwan from Q1, 2001 to Q1, 2015, we employed the analyze structural change test, unit root test , co-integration test, vector error correction model, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and forecast error variance composition, we indicate following findings:
First, co-integration test shows there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among real estate price index, economic growth rate, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates and land value increment tax revenues.
Second, the vector error correction model shows that in the long-run equilibrium adjustment process, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates and land value increment tax revenues are capable of adjusting the equilibrium error, in the equilibrium error no zero situation.
Three, the Granger causality test shows economic growth rate for real estate price index have significantly causality, real estate price index and the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates, economic growth rate and the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates have a complementary relationship between each other.
This thesis concludes that there is a reciprocal effect among real estate price index, economic growth rate, the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates and land value increment tax revenues. For the government, land value increment tax revenues policy can not serve as tools for government policy affecting the real estate price currently.
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