Investigating the market potential of transfer passengers on cross-strait flights:The case of Taipei-Los Angeles route

• Main Authors: Huang, Kuang-Hao, 黃光浩
• Other Authors: Wong, Jinn-tsai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/x3g6gy

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院運輸物流學程 === 103 === Due to the economy of Mainland China grows rapidly in recent years, the demand of air transportation in China has become one of the main markets in the world. After the first cross-strait charter flight executed from Taiwan to Shanghai in January 2003, it has passed more than 12 years, however, due to the political issues between the two sides, mainland Chinese residents are still unable to have a transit flight via Taiwan to the other destinations. Cross-strait flights opening for mainland Chinese transferring via Taiwan has been a main topic of interest to the aviation industry in Taiwan. Once Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport becomes a transit airport option to mainland Chinese travelers, it will be expected to bring a large amount of passengers making stopover flights via Taiwan, which would not only increase the traffic volume but also help Taiwan develop into a regional air transportation hub. This research is to develop an airport-pair demand model and applies it to the air transportation system between major origins of China to Los Angeles of the United Sates. By incorporating the airport pair data of fare, traffic volumes, flight frequencies, block time, distance, minimum connection time and other considerable factors from May 2010 to November 2014, this research is based on aggregate Logit Model to forecast the market share allocations of each transit hubs of mainland Chinese travelers’ choice of routes to Los Angeles. The study also estimates the traffic volume and the market share of mainland Chinese passengers transferring via Taiwan Taoyuan International airport under the assumption of the limitation will be relieved by 2016. The results would provide references to the aviation industry of Taiwan to estimate the market potential of mainland Chinese passengers transiting via Taiwan. For airline companies, the study illustrates the potential markets in China, which would be also helpful for long term fleet planning and expansions. For the airport company, the study brings a point of view to airport operations to response to the changes of future traffic growth, as well as the airport capacity and facility planning, so as to enhance the airport operation efficiency and competitiveness.