The Research of the Influence Factors of Housing Price and Vacancies Based on The Behavior Model of Residential Construction Industry

• Main Authors: Lin, Hsin-Mei, 林欣郿
• Other Authors: Hsieh, Henry H.Y.
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59395004877526050797

碩士 === 國立屏東科技大學 === 企業管理系所 === 103 === This research is to analyze the benefit and influence of housing price and vacancies on the construction industry in Taiwan using Structure-Conduct-Performance (S-C-P) model. A sample of 280 observations in the 20 cities and counties in Taiwan during 2000-2013 was tested by Pooled Cross-Sectional Time-Series regression model. We use Two Stage Least Squares Method (2SLS) to analyze the influence factors of the vacancies and real housing price on the construction industry in Taiwan. The housing price is influenced by the supply side and regional development. Housing prices negatively influenced vacancies indicating irrationality of this market. Vacancies was decided mostly by supply side but it did not affect housing price. The housing market appears M type. Although high price vacancies were low indicating demands of quality house. However high vacancies accompanied with low price such as structural vacancies. Vacancies were not necessary oversupply or inventories of housing unit. Still they were houses needed by residential demand, speculation and investment as well. Under supply side oriented developers were more inclined to group irrationality. Housing buyers also showed group irrationality and herding under the transparency of the housing market. As expected the factors of supply and demand sides and events caused significant influence on construction industry and behavior. To increase the holding costs of residential units can effectively control the demand of speculation and investment. In addition the implementation of government policy should consider structural factors to avoid exaggerating and exacerbating effects. Developer should consider differentiation and competitive dynamic to increase group rationality. House buyer should increase information filtering and judgement to avoid herding and group irrationality under the transparency of housing price.