Economy-wide Impact Analysis of a Carbon Tax on International Aviation in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Lin, Po-Ta, 林柏達
• Other Authors: Lee, Tsung-Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83938044462200235105

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 經濟學系 === 103 === With the expansion of global trade, international aviation has grown strongly in the recent years. Air transportation services increase more than 4% per year. Though aviation only accounts for 2~3% of global CO2 emission, the rapid growth must cause serious threat to global climate change. As a result, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decides to draw up a restriction on international aviation CO2 emission before the end of 2016. And the CO2 emission control will be put into force in 2020. ICAO has not released specific controls on CO2 emission, but expressed that they would go after the orientation of market-based measures. Therefore, the discussion of controlling the greenhouse gas emission in international follows the direction of voluntary emission reductions. This thesis assumes that there is a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan. And we adopt a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which including the link of “economy–energy–environment”, named Energy-Environmental Version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E), assessing the impact of levying a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan. According to the results, a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan only causes a relatively significant impact on aviation. Under the scenario of low carbon tax rate (€7 per ton of CO2), the real outputs of the aviation industry in Taiwan will reduce by 4.34% (276.52 million U.S. dollars) and the exports of air transport services will reduce by 12.46% (299.45 million U.S. dollars). However, the impacts are insignificant on other industries in Taiwan, so as to the real GDP growth rates of Taiwan. Even under the scenario of high carbon tax (€30 per ton of CO2), the real GDP growth rates only reduce by 0.06% (236.34 million U.S. dollars), and the CO2 emission in Taiwan only decreases by 0.53% (1.36 million tons CO2), which is insignificant. Since the percentage change in the CO2 emission is greater than the percentage change in real GDP growth rates, a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan will lead the intensity of CO2 emission in Taiwan to decrease.