| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄大學 === 應用經濟學系碩士班 === 103 === In this paper, we use the present-value model to study the growth rate of housing prices for all cities and counties in Taiwan. We investigate the differences between the growth rate of real housing prices and the growth rate of the fundamental value that is derived from the macroeconomic variables to explore the housing bubbles. By means of the two-stage regression analysis, we firstly use income and its fundamental variables to estimate the fitted permanent income of all cities and counties in Taiwan. Then, under the assumption of constant interest rates, we utilize the present-value model to derive fitted nominal housing prices using the panel vector-autoregression model. Also, we adopt the Granger causality test to validate the causality of variables. Lastly, we apply the Wald test to verify whether the forecasts of housing prices are consistent with the actual prices.
The data of this paper is from 2002 to 2013. The empirical results indicate that the unemployed population has negative impact while employer ratio and education have positive impacts to the permanent income. Besides, we also find that housing prices Granger cause the permanent income. The housing prices deviate from the theoretical values. The results show that the housing prices of Taipei city deviate more than those of New Taipei city, Taoyuan city, Hsinchu city, Taichung city, Tainan city and Kaohsiung city. Yilan county also deviates more than Hsinchu county, Miaoli county and Keelung city. Chiayi city deviates the most among the counties to the south of Changhua county but excluding Tainan and Kaohsiung city. Finally, Penghu county deviates more than Taitung and Hualien county.
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