The Study on the Housing Bubbles of Major Cities in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chang,Hsun-Tung, 張勳桐
• Other Authors: Wen-Chi Liu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01831776534861367352

碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 104 === In recent years, housing prices in Taipei have “climbed” constantly, and have driven the housing prices to climb higher and higher in Taiwan, becoming the first of people’s grievances and generating a widespread concern about housing bubble in Taiwan. In response to the problem of high housing prices, although the government has introduced various policies fighting against high housing prices, it failed to stop the rising prices. What caused the problem? Is there a bubble crisis over the housing prices in major cities of Taiwan? Our government should learn from the housing bubble experience of other countries such as United States and Japan, take the various factors that may cause housing bubble into consideration, and make comprehensively concrete and feasible policies, to deal with the problems as early as possible and avoid the impact of the real estate bubble on the economy. In this study, a total of nine major cities in Taiwan: Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, Taichung City, Chiayi City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City are the subjects. The data of quarterly housing prices and personal disposable income from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2015 are collected to calculate the “ratio of housing price to income”. The KSS Fourier unit root test with SPSM procedure is used to analyze the data in order to understand whether the real estate bubble crisis really exists in the urban areas of Taiwan. This study found the housing prices in major cities of Taiwan basically have not been supported by income. In other words, housing bubble really exists in major cities of Taiwan.