總體經濟與原物料指標對高收益債基金淨值的影響

• Main Author: 林意展
• Other Authors: LI,CIAO-MING
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48304936173093160369

碩士 === 佛光大學 === 應用經濟學系 === 104 === In recent years, the Banks of Taiwan cut the deposit interest rate continuously and the worldwide countries start to lower the interest rate to stimulate the economy. Moreover, 23 countries including Europe and Japan even start to carry out the policy of negative interest rate. When the increase of interest rate is slower than the inflation speed and the price rising speed, and the money deposited in the bank can’t still stop the devaluation, people start to think about how to defeat the inflation in addition to the hard work. They come to the bank investment specialist for help. Under such environment of the constantly dropping interest rate, the high-yield bond fund with the monthly interest distribution is quite preferred by the investors as it is recommended by the bank investment specialist and other investors. It is like an alternative of the time deposit. The investors are so happy to earn interest higher than that of the time deposit, which can’t only defeat inflation but also avoid the supplementary premium of the Second-Generation National Health Insurance. However, many investors are not aware that the high-yield bond is investment rather than time deposit actually. The investment target of the high-yield bond is the non-investment grade bond issued by enterprises. In case of recession, the enterprise will have fewer profits, so they can’t repay, which will result in default risk. Despite the monthly interest distribution, the principal will be increased or decreased with the fluctuation of the financial market. The study aims to seek the correlation between the rate of return of the high-yield bond fund, the macroeconomic indexes and the raw material. It applies the regression model to analyze the correlation between the net value of the high-yield bond fund, the economy and the raw material trend. The study period is ten years from January, 2006 to December, 2015. The study results show the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) and the PMI index of manufacturing industry of the macroeconomic indexes are positively correlated to the net value of fund. U.S. bond yield and unemployment rate of these ten years are negatively correlated to the net value of fund. The U.S. dollar exchange rate and price of crude oil are positively correlated to the net value of high-yield bond. The gold price is positively correlated to the net value of high-yield bond.