| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 統計學系 === 104 === After the global financial crisis, European Union (EU) faced a range of economic and political problems, including the Greek debt crisis and the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership. People start to think what factors cause these problems. A large literature has emerged discussing this issue and examining the future directions of monetary and exchange rate agreements of many countries in the region. One of the popular questions has raised researchers’ interests: Are East Asian countries possible to be the next monetary integrated area?
This paper investigates the similarity of exchange rates and consumer price index (CPI) in the East Asian region, Taiwan, Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea and five ASEAN member countries by cluster analysis. We use HC tree and DCG tree to discuss the structures of these two macro economic factors and whether major economic events between 2004~2015 such as global financial crisis and Japan’s new economic policy influenced the structure.
The exchange rates and CPI are both found to be more consistent among East Asian countries, including that these countries already have the basic condition to be the monetary integrated area. However, it is important to pay attention to Japan’s new economic policy, which influenced the structure a lot, and that Japanese yen and Chinese yuan still have gaps with ASEAN member countries.
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