Duration and Determinants of Stability on Fishery Trade Patterns：Evidence from OECD Countries

• Main Authors: Tzu-Ming Lee, 李梓銘
• Other Authors: Kuo-I Chang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/49552465686068040011

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 農業經濟與行銷碩士學位學程 === 104 === It has been indicated that fishery products are being traded largely between developed countries and being highly contended in previous literature. Therefore, investigating the stability of fishery trade patterns and determinants are essential and important to policy implications. This study includes the survival analysis in fishery trade patterns between OECD countries and the investigation on whether the survival difference exists between importing and exporting country and fishery industry. The results show that the fishery trade patterns are mainly half inter-industry trade (One-way) and half intra-industry trade (Two-way), but One-way has always been the dominate pattern from 1994 to 2013. Nevertheless, vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) is the dominant pattern inside Two-way, and this is corresponding to the previous literature. This study test the survival rate and stability of major exporting and importing countries on fishery products. The results on both pooling all the fishery products and respective OECD countries indicate that the survival rate and stability of Two-way are higher than One-way, and horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT) are higher than VIIT. The results are also corresponding to most of the previous literature indicating that differentiated products live longer. This is the first study using HS 6-digit code to analyze the influence of tariff margin and average consumption on survival rate and survival duration of trade patterns in fishery trade. In addition, this study uses Cox non-proportional hazard model and Logit model as econometric methods. Survival rates and stability of trade patterns get higher (lower hazard rate) when average consumption gets greater, and both of them get lower (greater hazard rate) when tariff margin gets greater.