| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 水利及海洋工程學系 === 104 === The Circum-Pacific Belt has become active in recent years, and the shallow earthquake in the border area of land and sea probably causes tsunami disaster. This includes overflow flooded, building damage, casualties and radiation crisis of nuclear power plant. In view of 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami, tsunami hazard analysis is applied in this study. To quantify the risk, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) serves as a powerful methodology. Ma (2015) has already established the method of PTHA. Therefore, this study will further investigate the tidal effect of PTHA.
Generally, uncertainties exist in various ways of probability analysis. PTHA distinguishes them into two kinds, namely aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Aleatory uncertainty stems from the deviation of modeling and reality, and it could be solved by improvement of numerical simulation. To deal with the aleatory uncertainty, we incorporate tidal uncertainty into PTHA. Different static tidal stages are set in Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) to evaluate tsunami hazards. Using the Δt Method and the Pattern Method proposed by Adams et al. (2015), which combine tsunami events with a typical year of tidal record. Additionally, the Gaussian Method proposed by Mofjeld et al. (2007) could apply the theoretical probability distribution to such a research easily. These three methods are compared in this study and the Pattern Method is regarded as the most rigorous theory. Finally, the method of incorporating tidal uncertainty into PTHA has been established and been utilized to Maanshan nuclear power plant in Taiwan.
|
|---|
