| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立暨南國際大學 === 國際企業學系 === 105 === Exchange rate become more important. The rise and fall of exchange rate are also affected by trading. In 2008, it happened financial Tsunami over the world caused European debt crisis. Because of credit problem, PIIGS are tragic of others. This paper study over dramatic variety in the business cycle, which economic variances affected the exchange rate. Cases in United States to PIIGS. Test whether the CPI has interaction with the exchanged rate or not. This paper sets up two models to test.one for according to relative Purchasing Power Parity model of the establishment of the basic, the second is join the segment, the time information is divided into before and after the European debt crisis to study these models.
The empirical results are as follows: (1) The results of the basic model test show that the United States has a significant influence in this study. (2)After joining the time segment discussion, the US debt crisis before the US exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact, but the European debt crisis due to the global economic recession, weak national power, prices and consumption tightening, although the weak impact. (3) After the Wald-Test and Unit root Test, the model established in this study does not meet the purchasing power parity theory. (4) the United States and PIIGS prices did not change due to the debt crisis in Europe, the exchange rate will not change drastically due to the changes in the CPI, and this should be caused by other reasons.
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