| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 財務金融學系在職專班 === 104 === In past recessions or unstable era, people in order to preserve the asset is not affected by fluctuations in the economic environment, it is often choose gold as a hedge and hedge targets. However, in the past literature has pointed out that professional institutional investors and individual investors in the asset price is determined to play a different role. From the perspective of behavioral finance to explain this observation and the two groups for the gold in.
We used on behalf of institutional investors in gold sentiment indicators (CBSIGold), found that professional institutional investors on when the gold price trend optimistic, gold remuneration will, as they had expected to rise in the future, indicating that institutional investors sentiment indicator for the rate of return is have significant predictive power, in which the rate of increase to the maximum after the financial tsunami. And professional investors in predicting future price movements, has been considered the influence of oil and the dollar sentiment indicators of institutional investors. Conversely, if the individual investor sentiment indicators (MCSI), the time when individual investors optimistic about the future price of gold (pessimistic), excessively bullish (bearish) current prices, and at the time of the next issue of reversal, reversal strength in the most intense during the financial crisis. We also found that in the larger stock market risk, people will choose to enter the gold market hedge.
In financial crisis period, due to the market upheaval caused retail psychological panic, irrational investment behavior of its impact is greater than rational investment behavior of institutional investors for market impact. Institutional investors are not simply collect data to analyze past the expected future price movements of gold, but a truly professional look to create its rate of return on investment in gold. However, in advanced information and transaction information today many investors if multi-reference data, rather than reimbursing chasing kill low, think carefully before investing, understanding human psychological factors impulsive investment behavior, should be able to invest in this way reduce losses.
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