A Watershed-Based Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Analysis to Risks Posed by Typhoon: A Case Study of the Villages in Kaoping River Basin Affected by Typhoon Morakot

• Main Authors: LIU,YI-CHUNG, 劉怡君
• Other Authors: HUNG, HUNG-CHIH
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07497668247905309327

博士 === 國立臺北大學 === 不動產與城鄉環境學系 === 104 === Typhoon Morakot's devastating impacts reveal great challenges to the traditional approaches to both river basin management and disaster risk management. To cope with the increasing risks posed by extreme weather and climate events, the risk managers have to recognize the complex nature of disaster risk, which is usually multi-hazard, multi-disciplinary, and cross jurisdictional boundaries. Accordingly, effective strategies for disaster risk governance must be developed. Based on an integration of the risk-hazard model and the climate change impact model, this research proposes a novel methodology to assess the disaster risks posed by typhoons. Specifically, we use a multi-criteria assessment which includes multivariate analysis, spatial statistical analysis, geographic information systems and questionnaires. Using the Kaoping River Basin as a case study, we analyze different phases of Typhoon Morakot-induced risks. Firstly, we assess the pre-event vulnerability and the impacts of Typhoon Morakot at the local level. Next, we examine the key factors that influence residents’ decision-making for adaptation to typhoon related risks. Finally, we analyze the relationship among vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The research results show that there is an apparent spatial pattern in the local vulnerability among the upstream, midstream and downstream areas. Also, the significant indicators vary among different areas. There is a pronounced spatial clustering of Typhoon Morakot’s impacts. For example, the hotspots of landslide, bridge damage and agriculture loss are located in upstream regions, the flooding hotspots are concentrated in the midstream zones where the tributary joins, and the housing damage is mainly in the lower east downstream near the mouth of Kaoping River. Furthermore, up to 90% of residents adopted a short-term autonomous adaptation before a typhoon arrives. Conversely, less than 40% of residents adopted adaptive measures in the aftermath of typhoon-caused disasters. Those indicates, such as risk perception, disaster experience and public education for disaster risk reduction, are critical in determining personal adaptation. However, socioeconomic status and typhoon warning message do not certainly affect adaptation; rather social support and social trust have negative effects on autonomous adaptation. The analysis results provide partial support for the correspondence among vulnerability, impacts and adaption. The findings demonstrate that the casualties and property losses caused by Typhoon Morakot are significantly affected by the context of local vulnerability, such as larger hazard-prone areas, higher elevation, more intense land uses and less adaptive capacity. It is noteworthy that neither demographic nor socioeconomic indicators, which are usually seen as key vulnerable factors, are strongly correlated with disaster losses. The findings also indicate that the local sensitivities related to biophysical and land use are positively correlated with personal adaptation, yet there is a significant negative association between personal adaptation and local demographic characteristics or local socioeconomic status. In addition, Typhoon Morakot’s losses are significantly positively related to personal adaptation. In conclusion, we suggest that guidance of risk governance should account for different areas of a river basin in order to enhance effectiveness of disaster risk reduction for future typhoons.