| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 104 === Most of the literature that discussed about the Baltic Dry Index, abbreviated as BDI, tended to focus on the relationship with commodity index, stock index, individual stock price, but less to discuss the relationship with economic growth of individual country. This study is to examine the relationship between BDI and the economic growth of the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan by using the quarterly data of BDI, the GDP of the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan. By using self-vector regression (VAR) to analysis the relationship between BDI and the three countries’ economic growth. Through Granger causality test to find the causal relationships between the presences of lead or lag between the variables. Finally, with understanding the impact of the reaction function of the three countries’ economic growth changes to BDI and the deferred effect.
The results found that BDI is influenced by the economic growth of the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the economic growth of United States could impact the economic growth of Mainland China and Taiwan. BDI is significantly related to the economic growth of Taiwan. The economic meaning is that the economic growth of the countries with highly worldwide trade reliability and with export leading tendency might noticeable impact the freights of bulk market.
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