Strategic Voting and Electoral Systems: Case Studies of Elections in Taiwan, 1994-2014

• Main Authors: Rong-Tzu Chang, 張容慈
• Other Authors: 王業立
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5vvxjp

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 政治學研究所 === 104 === This paper studies strategic voting of the five important elections in Taiwan from 1994 to 2014. These elections include three mayoral elections in Taipei City (1994, 1998 and 2006), one mayoral election in Kaohsiung City (2010) and presidential election in 2000. The major political parties include Kuomintang (KMT), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the so-called pan-blue political parties that withdrawn from KMT while remain aligned to KMT. In these selected cases, despite of single-member district, if there are more than two candidates, it is probable to appear strategic voting, but it is not successful every time. The following are the key findings of this paper: 1.There are two patterns of strategic voting. First, strategic voting are successful in cases involving giving up a weaker candidate in favour of a stronger substitute. Second, strategic voting fails in cases which poll rates of target candidates are close. 2.There are three important factors that influence the outcome of strategic voting. First, the target candidates’ rank in opinion polls may determine the result of strategic voting. Second, inconsistant poll results during a campaign period may disrupt the decision making process of voters, which lead to fail strategic voting. Third, the result of strategic voting hinges on whether the target candidates are viable substitutes.