| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國際企業學研究所 === 104 === In the field of International Economics, the exchange rate of RMB has been a focus. What’s more, there is close connection between the exchange rate and the foreign trade of China. As a result, in this thesis we use econometric models to analyze the relationship between the import(or export) and some explaining variables, which include the exchange rate of RMB, the GDP, the volatility of exchange rate, FDI and some dummy variables such as WTO and financial crisis. The statistics in this model is based on a monthly sample between Jan 2000 and Dec 2015. As a result, both of the export and import would decrease when the exchange rate of RMB appreciates. Also, the other variables have significant effects on foreign trade of China.
Then a panel data model based on the statistics of five countries in Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is established. The result of the panel data model agrees with that of the model above.
According to the empirical result of this thesis, the appreciation of RMB would have adversary impact on Chinese net export in the short run. However, the Chinese government would adjust the economic structure under the pressure of the appreciation of RMB in the long run, which does good to the sustained and sound development of Chines economy. In this process, the government should trade off the speed of the market-oriented reform of exchange rate to ensure the smooth transition of the economic transformation.
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