Applying the Grey Theory to predict the number of drug addicts under detention in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ming-Yuan Tsai, 蔡銘遠
• Other Authors: 戴忠淵
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07501489313813235845

碩士 === 樹德科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 104 === Since the late Ching Dynasty, drugs have been a major social problem in Taiwan, despite numerous social changes. Since the amendment to the Narcotics Hazard Prevention Act in 2003 focusing on depenalization and criminalization maintenance, drug offenders have been regarded as patients and treated with detention. It takes time to tell if such measure effectively reduces the number of drug addicts. Given commonly-used statistical methods, a large quantity of time and data is needed. Localized grey relational analysis and grey prediction in the Grey Theory were employed in the current study. Localized grey relational analysis was adopted to examine the relationships among the number, educational backgrounds, and ages of newcomers under detention. Grey prediction was used to predict newcomers in the future. Residual analysis was utilized to examine if such prediction model reached accurate prediction. The number of persons abusing Ketamine reported by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was collected for the grey prediction. It is hoped that the results of the current study provide advice on human allocation and policy adjustment.