Forecasting for short Term of Solar Power

• Main Authors: KUANG-WEI LI, 李光偉
• Other Authors: 金鴻展
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/jfw93n

碩士 === 正修科技大學 === 電機工程研究所 === 105 === Following the hydroelectric power generation and thermal power generation, nuclear has nowadays become one of the major options for the electricity generation since been invented. Though the nuclear has been considered as the most effective solution for the electricity generation, it also bears the odium for the high risk of the mass destruction if any accident occurred. The tendency toward "Nuclear Free" or "Anti-Nuclear" has triggered a heated debate after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. Taiwan, as an island country, has the extremely high needs for importing the various fuel of the electricity generation in the absence of water resource and natural mineral. Under such circumstance, the development of solar power has answered the call upon the power generation in every country in the world. In the period of 2000 to 2015, the sum of yearly solar power generated in Taiwan has the growth from 1,200 kWh to 850,300 kWh. In addition, the installed capacity of solar power in Taiwan has the growth of 606 MW during 2009 to 2014 after the "Renewable Energy Development Act" be taken in to effect by "Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C." With the result mentioned above, it is showed that the solar power is becoming as the major option in electricity generation in Taiwan. Though solar power has been considered as alternative power resource in the parallel system, it will also create the impact for the power system due to the unstable power feedback result from the various environment factors. Except the irradiance, the atmospheric environment factors, such as temperature and humidity, shall be also considered as the root cause in the solar power generation. This research is aimed to analyse the relevance among solar power generation, temptation and humidity, and further provide an effective procedure for forecasting the solar power generation in short term. With the auxiliary feedback received in this solution, we expect the power system could maintain the stability by predicting the change of the immediate loading and adjustment of reserve margin.