| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 統計學系 === 105 === The Environmental Protection Agency of the Executive Yuan has set the air quality standard to reduce the concentration to 20μg/m^3 or less in 2014 and reach an average annual value of 15μg/m^3 2018. The results show that the annual concentration is higher than the set standards and are higher than the 2014 and 2018 target concentration, on behalf of PM2.5 concentration improvement has its necessity and urgency. Nationals are the assets of the state, the health of the people and the national economic development has a great relevance, so this study will make the cause of death for the total number of deaths and respiratory diseases statistics, using Monte Carlo method to simulate PM2.5 concentration reduction The concentration of health shocks at the target concentration and the economic value of the reductions and the cost of the cost effectiveness (Cost Effectiveness) concept, given to government agencies in the formulation of policies, reached the established PM2.5 concentration standard, the lowest cost The normative strategy.
This study is divided into two parts to explore, the first part: when the PM2.5 annual average concentration decreased to the target concentration of the current level of the value of the table; the second part: when the PM2.5 daily average concentration decreased to the target concentration The number of shocks and the economic value of diminishing.
The results show that when the average concentration of PM2.5 is reduced to the target concentration, the two types of death factors and economic value are all down with the PM2.5. Better. When the PM2.5 daily average concentration decreased to the target concentration, the two types of death and health shocks and economic value in a reduction to 40μg/m^3reduction of the best followed by PM2.5 daily average concentration decreased, the reduction effect Better.
Based on the above, it is recommended that the daily PM2.5 target concentration be set at 40μg/m^3. However, the mortality rate of the two causes of death is highly correlated with the PM2.5 concentration, so the trend of the health impact curve and the economic effect curve is roughly the same. Therefore, it is suggested that the target concentration should be set according to the different demographic and industrial properties of each region and the cost of controlling the pollution source.
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