The Panel Regression Model Applied to Occupational Accident of Labor Insurance

• Main Authors: HUANG, YI-CHUN, 黃義郡
• Other Authors: CHANG,CHIH-KAI
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vqp52f

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 統計學系 === 105 === Currently, the Occupational Accident of Labor Insurance premium rate is divided into the business category to pricing in Taiwan. The premium rate combined experience rate with the manual rate for each business category. There are differences between calculation method of premium rate in Taiwan and the classical credibility theory is the calculation method of the weighting factor. In Taiwan, the weighting factor is defined as the number of insured in the business category divided by the number of insured in all business categories. However, the weighting factor of the classical credibility theory is defined as the number of insured in the business category divided by standards for full credibility which are calculated in terms of the expected number of insured. If fluctuation of the claims in the past is relatively stable, the weighting factor is higher. In contrast, Taiwan's weighting factor is lower than the weighting factor of classical credibility theory. Therefore, the premium rate will have lower experience claims weight to cause the premium rate will be adjusted hard. When the claim has time trend, the estimated claims will have significant errors. In addition to the two methods above, the Bühlmann-Straub credibility model which considers an unobserved risk type of insureds is widely used in the determination of the premium rate. Compared to the classical credibility theory, the Bühlmann-Straub model could handle heteroscedastic claims distributions, trend effects, and nested classification. This paper applies three credibility models to estimate claims, then we find the Bühlmann-Straub model estimate claims error is minimized. Moreover, the actual data show that the claims of each business categories have different time trends. Therefore, we incorporate the time trends into the Bühlmann-Straub model and use the panel regression model to estimate the credibility factor. The panel regression model can not only consider the average claims in the past, but also add other factors. In conclusion, the results show that the panel regression model incorporates the time factor to accurately estimate claims.