| Summary: | 碩士 === 佛光大學 === 應用經濟學系 === 105 === The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the policy on the implementation of minimum wages in China on its economic growth. This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to analyze the data of Shanghai. The availables are the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, the labor productivity change rate and the economic growth rate.
In terms of current coefficient estimates, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage has a significant positive impact on the impact of the unemployment rate. That means when the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage increases 1%, the unemployment rate also increases
0.376%. And the unemployment rate has a significant negative relationship between inflation rate. When the unemployment rate increase 1%, the infation rate decreases 0.681%. When the infation rate increases 1%, the ecnomic growth rate decreases 0.496%. When the labor productivity change rate increase 1%, the ecnomic growth rate increases 0.368%.
By observing impulse- response function, the impulse- response of the unemployment rate to the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage is positive at the beginning, increasing 0.072%. The result continues half a year. The impulse- response of the inflation rate to the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage is negative, decreasing 0.048%. The influence continues 5 quarters of year. The impulse- response of the labor productivity change rate to the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage is positive, increasing 1.19%. The impulse- response of the economic growth rate to the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage is negative, decreasing 1.14%. The impact continues 3 quarters of year.
The study shows that in the short run, the minimum wages increases in China will cause a negative result on the economic growth rate. However, in the long run, there will be a positive impact on the economic growth rate.
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