The Research for the Influence of the Volatility of Crude Oil Price to the Macroeconomy and Stock Price in Taiwan

• Main Authors: SHIH, YI-TING, 施懿庭
• Other Authors: Zeng Li-Hong
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/g6dxb4

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 金融系金融資訊碩士班 === 105 === In the modern world, energy source is the important manufacturing resources for industrial age and economy, especially oil. Until the end of 2016, oil price fluctuation is still violent. Because of the reliance of oil import in Taiwan, the focus of this observation is whether the effect of oil prices will change Taiwan's economy. This paper uses the data on the overall economic variables of Taiwan from January 1990 to December 2016. The variables include the wholesale price index(WPI), the consumer price index(CPI), the money supply(M1B), the unemployment rate(UR), the exchange rate (NT dollar against the US dollar, ER) and the gross domestic product (GDP). In addition to another Taiwan stock exchange(STK) to explore whether besides the overall economic level outside the stock market is also affected. The method has Unit root test, Co-integration test, VECM and Grange causality test. The results of Co-integration test showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of crude oil and the consumer price index, money supply, the gross domestic product and stock exchange. In VECM, it is found that the price of crude oil in the first stage has a significant impact on the wholesale price index, the consumer price index, money supply, the exchange rate and the gross domestic product. Finally, in Grange causality test that crude oil prices of West Germany crude oil prices significantly ahead of the consumer price index, the exchange rate, the unemployment rate and the gross domestic product. The results of the study understand that oil not only affects Taiwan's gross domestic product, but also the impact of people's livelihood economy. However, due to the depletion of oil will, exhaust one day so the alternative energy development will be very important in the future, and also can effectively reduce the impact of oil price on the Taiwan economy.